This is Laplace’s famous “rule of succession” (1814). Suppose on the basis of observing 90 white balls out of 100, we calculate by the rule of succession that the probability of the next ball being white is \(91/102=0.89\). It is quite conceivable that the next ball might be black. Even in the case, where all 100 balls have been white, so that the probability of the next ball being white is 0.99, there is still a small probability that the next ball is not white. What the probabilistic reasoning