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Inverse View
It is not the case that Alcmaeon's own method of inference from signs cannot distinguish itself from sophisticated guesswork without a criterion he has not supplied.
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Reasons For
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Reason for
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1.
Practical success in medical predictions demonstrates that Alcmaeon's method produces reliable results, not mere guesswork.
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2.
Explicit articulation of criteria is not required for a method to be genuinely inferential rather than guesswork—tacit expertise exists.
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3.
The distinction between guessing and inference depends on actual causal connections, not on the reasoner's ability to state formal justifications.
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Reasons Against
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Reason against
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1.
Alcmaeon infers internal bodily processes from external observable signs without explaining why those signs reliably track reality.
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2.
Distinguishing systematic inference from lucky guessing requires explicit criteria for when signs warrant conclusions—criteria Alcmaeon lacks.
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3.
Without justifying why certain signs count as evidence, any inference method becomes indistinguishable from arbitrary pattern-matching.
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