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    Any reasoning from past observations to future prediction... — Carmelics
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    Home/Skepticism
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    Any reasoning from past observations to future predictions requires a connecting principle that assumes the uniformity of nature

    SkepticismTruth & Knowledge
    ?Rate how convincing each reason is below to see the overall strength.
    2 reasons for
    1 reason against

    Reasons For

    2 perspectives
    Reason for 1 of 2
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    • 1.Hume's own analysis shows that neither deductive logic nor empirical facts alone can bridge the gap between 'has been' and 'will be'.
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    • 2.Any probabilistic or frequency-based inference still presupposes that past frequencies reliably constrain future ones, which is itself a uniformity assumption.
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    • 3.Attempts to justify induction by appeal to its past success are circular, as Hume demonstrated, since that justification already assumes the uniformity it seeks to establish.
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    Reason for 2 of 2
    ?
    • 1.Bertrand Russell's 'inductivist turkey' illustrates that no finite sequence of confirming instances logically entails a universal generalization without a background assumption of lawlike regularity.
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    • 2.Goodman's grue paradox demonstrates that without a privileged principle selecting natural over gerrymandered predicates, infinitely many incompatible generalizations fit any dataset equally well.
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    • 3.The selection of 'natural' predicates over grue-like ones itself smuggles in a uniformity assumption about which features of nature remain stable across time.
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    Reasons Against

    1 perspective
    Reason against
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    • 1.Moving from past to future is not direct because the course of nature might change
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    • 2.A connecting principle is needed to bridge past observations and future predictions
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    • 3.The only connecting principle that would justify such inferences is one asserting that nature is uniform
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    Related

    A connecting principle is needed to bridge past observations and future predicti...Any probabilistic or frequency-based inference still presupposes that past frequ...Attempts to justify induction by appeal to its past success are circular, as Hum...Bertrand Russell's 'inductivist turkey' illustrates that no finite sequence of c...
    +5 moreShow less
    Goodman's grue paradox demonstrates that without a privileged principle selectin...Hume's own analysis shows that neither deductive logic nor empirical facts alone...Moving from past to future is not direct because the course of nature might chan...The only connecting principle that would justify such inferences is one assertin...The selection of 'natural' predicates over grue-like ones itself smuggles in a u...

    Similar

    The only connecting principle that would justify such inferences is on...88%A connecting principle is needed to bridge past observations and futur...86%Demonstrative reasoning cannot bridge the gap between past observation...85%Inductive inferences rely on the principle of the uniformity of nature85%

    Source

    AI-extracted1/3 agreementValid
    SEP: hume
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    Hume spells out the circularity this way. Any reasoning that takes us from (1) to (2) must employ some connecting principle that connects the past with the future. Since one thing that keeps us from moving directly from past to future is the possibility that the course of nature might change, it seems plausible to think that the connecting principle we need will be one that will assure us that nature is uniform—that the course of nature won’t change—something like this uniformity principle:
    Extraction notes

    Validity: Extracted via Max plan + API grounding/validity checks

    Details

    Type
    claim
    Perspectives
    3 (2 for, 1 against)
    Edits
    1 edit