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    Assigning prior probabilities to metaphysical hypotheses ... — Carmelics
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    Supports→Carnap's inductive logic programs collapsed precisely because assigning logical probabilities across metaphysical hypotheses requires substantive commitments that cannot be derived from logic alone.

    Assigning prior probabilities to metaphysical hypotheses (e.g., physicalism vs. dualism) depends on background assumptions about what's 'natural' or 'elegant'—these are not logically derivable.

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    Key Terms

    Elegant (in philosophy)(as used in philosophy of science)
    A theory that explains something with simplicity and beauty—without unnecessary complexity or extra moving parts.
    Logically derivable(as used in logic and reasoning)
    Something that must be true if you follow the rules of logic from starting facts—it's proven, not just guessed.
    Metaphysical hypotheses(as the types of theories that probabilities were being assigned to)
    Competing theories about the ultimate nature of reality—like whether the universe is made of matter, minds, or something else entirely.
    background assumptions(Davies 2003a, p. 43)
    Assumptions an externalist must hold in order to rationally grant that the *premises are warranted, which already imply the conclusion (3)
    dualism

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    (philosophy of mind)
    A philosophy of mind under which persons may survive death
    natural (in philosophy)(as used to compare different relationships or connections)
    More fitting, appropriate, or likely to occur based on how the world actually works—as opposed to what's forced, artificial, or unlikely.
    physicalism(The target position that the knowledge argument is designed to refute)
    The thesis that physical theory can in principle account for everything there is to know about the world
    prior probabilities(Contrasted with dynamic principles; Carnap's system cited as an example)
    Initial probability assignments that are static and do not by themselves account for belief revision over time

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    Carnap's inductive logic programs collapsed precisely because assigning logical ...

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