Bayesian reasoning requires that the posterior probability of a miracle claim depends on the prior probability of its enabling conditions

The evaluation of a serious cumulative argument for a particular miracle claim requires the consideration of historical details that go beyond the bounds of philosophy as a discipline (McGrew and McGrew 2009). But some general points regarding its structure are of philosophical interest. If the argument is categorical, then its conclusion is (at least) that, where “\(E\)” stands for the sum of the relevant evidence, \(P(M\mid E) \gt 0.5\). But where “\(G\)” stands for “God exists” (where “God” i