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    Because sequential equilibrium makes beliefs about condit... — Carmelics
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    Challenges→Identifying the solution to Selten's Horse on general principles requires reasoning about players' beliefs about conditional probabilities, not merely strategic beliefs about actions.

    Because sequential equilibrium makes beliefs about conditional probabilities constitutive of strategy profiles, the claim that such beliefs are non-strategic conflates a technical distinction with a conceptual one.

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    Key Terms

    Conceptual distinction(Contrasted with real distinction)
    A distinction in which one thing is considered from different perspectives or aspects, without implying real compositeness.
    Conditional probabilities(probability and strategy)
    The likelihood of something happening given that something else has already happened (for example, the probability it will rain tomorrow given that it's cloudy today).
    Non-strategic(game theory and decision-making)
    Something that is not part of a deliberate plan or calculation aimed at achieving a goal.
    Strategy profiles(game theory)
    A complete description of what each player in a game decides to do, combining all their individual choices into one overall picture.
    Technical distinction

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    (philosophy of language and logic)
    A precise difference that matters specifically within a specialized field or system (like how mathematicians define a concept).
    constitutive(an alternative type of relationship the grounding relation might be)
    Describes how something is made up of or formed from basic components that define its essential nature.
    sequential equilibrium(Game theory, extensive-form games)
    A solution concept consisting of a strategy profile and a system of beliefs consistent with Bayes's rule, such that every player plays optimally from every information set given those beliefs and the strategy profile

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    Truth & Knowledge1 linkedPhilosophy of Language1 linked

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    Identifying the solution to Selten's Horse on general principles requires reason...

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