Skip to content
Carmelics
TopicsThinkersChangesContributorsLoading account…

    Carmelics

    A reasoning platform. Break down any belief into clear reasons, explore both sides, and weigh the evidence honestly.

    Navigate

    • Topics
    • Search
    • Recent Changes
    • Contribute
    • How It Works
    • Glossary
    • Thinkers
    • Contributors
    • About
    • Statistics
    • Terms
    • Privacy

    Database

    Statements
    —
    Perspectives
    —
    Topics
    —

    Press ? for keyboard shortcuts

    LoyalLoyalJusticeJustice
    Made withinDC&Austin
    Statements
    321,452
    Perspectives
    108,905
    Topics
    42
    Black swan events (financial crashes, pandemics, ecologic... — Carmelics
    Home
    HistoryEditSee Inverse

    Part of a larger discussion

    Supports→Aligning with nature's 'usual purpose' systematically ignores variance and tail risks that a rational agent is obligated to consider (Savage, Foundations of Statistics).

    Black swan events (financial crashes, pandemics, ecological collapse) have historically imposed massive costs precisely because decision-makers ignored tail risks in favor of baseline assumptions.

    ?Rate how convincing each reason is below to see the overall strength.

    No one has weighed in yet. Be the first to share reasons for or against this statement.

    Sign in or register to share your perspective on this statement.

    Key Terms

    Baseline assumptions(as used in decision-making and risk assessment)
    The default beliefs or expectations people use to make decisions, usually based on what normally happens rather than what *could* go wrong in rare cases.
    Black swan events(as used in risk analysis and decision-making)
    Rare, unpredictable events that have massive consequences and are often a complete surprise to people, even though they do happen sometimes in the real world.
    Tail risks(as used in probability and financial planning)
    The possibility of extreme or unusual outcomes that are unlikely to happen but would be catastrophic if they did—like the far ends of a distribution graph.

    Connections

    Next step

    Based on where you are in your exploration

    Explore a random proposition
    Start fresh with something unrelated.

    1 linked claim

    Aligning with nature's 'usual purpose' systematically ignores variance and tail ...

    Related

    Aligning with nature's 'usual purpose' systematically ignores variance and tail ...

    Details

    Type
    premise
    Perspectives
    0 (0 for, 0 against)

    Open for perspectives

    This idea is waiting for its first supporting or challenging perspective.

    Share the first perspective