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    Home/Original/inverse
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    Inverse View

    It is not the case that Hacking's frequentist constraint holds that probability statements require a well-defined reference class, and naked statistics like '60% of prisoners escaped' underdetermine the reference class.

    ?Set your confidence on the premises below to see your aggregate.

    Reasons For

    1 perspective
    Reason for
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    • 1.Most everyday probability discourse works fine without explicit reference classes; context and practical purposes often make the intended class clear enough.
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    • 2.Hacking conflates semantic indeterminacy with logical invalidity; vague reference classes don't make statistics meaningless, just less precise.
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    • 3.The constraint proves too much: natural language always involves implicit background assumptions, yet we don't treat all such statements as probability-ineligible.
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    Reasons Against

    1 perspective
    Reason against
    ?
    • 1.Probability statements require a domain to be meaningful; '60% of X' differs fundamentally from '60% of Y' even with identical numbers.
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    • 2.Bare statistics invite hidden equivocation: listeners may interpret 'prisoners escaped' as meaning different reference classes (yearly, by facility, by security level).
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    • 3.Scientific practice confirms this: experimental probability claims specify populations, methods, and conditions to ensure reproducibility and proper interpretation.
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