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    If a belief's content is constituted by objective chance,... — Carmelics
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    Supports→Beliefs about statistical hypotheses are not properly framed by connecting them to behavior via betting.

    If a belief's content is constituted by objective chance, then its proper epistemic norm is calibration to evidence about that chance, not coherence of a betting book, as Neyman's confidence interval framework demonstrates.

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    Key Terms

    Belief's content(in epistemology)
    What a belief is actually about—the specific claim or idea you're holding to be true.
    Calibration to evidence(in epistemology)
    Adjusting your confidence in a belief to match how often similar predictions actually come true in reality.
    Coherence of a betting book(in decision theory and epistemology)
    A system where your beliefs about different outcomes fit together logically without contradictions, often tested by whether someone could make guaranteed money by betting against you.
    Confidence interval(in statistics)
    A range of values calculated from data that's likely to contain the true answer, used to show how certain we can be about estimates from experiments or surveys.
    Constituted by

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    (describing what conditions would make something true)
    Made up of or determined by; in this case, what things would need to happen for something to count as true.
    Epistemic norm(in epistemology)
    A standard or rule for what counts as good, rational thinking and belief-formation.
    Neyman(historical reference)
    Jerzy Neyman, a 20th-century statistician who developed major methods for testing hypotheses and estimating probabilities from data.
    Objective chance(what rational credence should be based on according to Lewis)
    The real, actual probability that something will happen in the world—as opposed to just how confident you personally feel about it.

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    Truth & Knowledge1 linkedSkepticism1 linked

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    Beliefs about statistical hypotheses are not properly framed by connecting them ...

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