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    If self-locating uncertainty is ineliminable from prior p... — Carmelics
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    Challenges→The ur-probability solution to the fine-tuning argument successfully evades the anthropic objection

    If self-locating uncertainty is ineliminable from prior probability assignments, the ur-prior already smuggles in anthropic assumptions, making the claimed evasion circular.

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    1 reason for
    1 reason against

    Reasons For

    1 perspective
    Reason for
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    • 1.Any probability assignment requires fixing reference classes and update rules, which implicitly assume a perspective or observer position.
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    • 2.Claiming an 'ur-prior' escapes anthropic assumptions merely postpones the problem: anthropic facts still constrain which priors are rational.
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    • 3.Self-locating uncertainty about which observer one is appears logically prior to and inescapable for any agent assigning credences.
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    Reasons Against

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    Reason against
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    • 1.An ur-prior can be observer-neutral by assigning probabilities only to physical propositions, not to facts about which observer exists.
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    • 2.Distinguishing 'observer-independent priors' from 'anthropic conditionalization afterward' avoids circularity—anthropic facts then constrain updates, not priors.
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    • 3.Self-locating uncertainty only arises post-hoc when observers apply a prior to themselves; the prior itself need not encode observer identity.
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    Natural Theology1 linked

    Related

    An ur-prior can be observer-neutral by assigning probabilities only to physical ...Any probability assignment requires fixing reference classes and update rules, w...Claiming an 'ur-prior' escapes anthropic assumptions merely postpones the proble...Distinguishing 'observer-independent priors' from 'anthropic conditionalization ...
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    Self-locating uncertainty about which observer one is appears logically prior to...Self-locating uncertainty only arises post-hoc when observers apply a prior to t...The ur-probability solution to the fine-tuning argument successfully evades the ...

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