If success is itself theory-laden, then justifying analogical reasoning by appeal to past success is viciously circular in the manner Sextus Empiricus identified in criterion-based justification.

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Criterion-based justification(the type of justification problem Sextus Empiricus identified): A way of proving something is true by using a standard or rule to measure it—like using a test to check if a coin is real.
Sextus Empiricus(the source being cited for information about Stoic signs): An ancient Greek philosopher (around 200 CE) who documented skeptical arguments and different philosophical schools' ideas in his writings.
Theory-laden(in epistemology (theory of knowledge)): Already shaped by or dependent on particular assumptions and theories you've already accepted, rather than being purely objective or neutral.
analogical reasoning(Philosophy of inductive reasoning): A form of inference that has been analyzed as generalization from a single case, as a sampling argument, or as a distinctive argument form supported by past successes

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