Skip to content
Carmelics
TopicsThinkersChangesContributorsLoading account…

    Carmelics

    A reasoning platform. Break down any belief into clear reasons, explore both sides, and weigh the evidence honestly.

    Navigate

    • Topics
    • Search
    • Recent Changes
    • Contribute
    • How It Works
    • Glossary
    • Thinkers
    • Contributors
    • About
    • Statistics
    • Terms
    • Privacy

    Database

    Statements
    —
    Perspectives
    —
    Topics
    —

    Press ? for keyboard shortcuts

    LoyalLoyalJusticeJustice
    Made withinDC&Austin
    Statements
    321,452
    Perspectives
    108,905
    Topics
    42
    If the inferential link from past to future observations ... — Carmelics
    Home
    HistoryEditSee Inverse

    Part of a larger discussion

    Challenges→Probabilistic reasoning does not yield a conclusion that the next ball will be a certain color, but rather that certain future observations are very likely given past observations

    If the inferential link from past to future observations is itself a logical necessity within a confirmed probability framework, then the conclusion carries modal force beyond mere likelihood.

    ?Rate how convincing each reason is below to see the overall strength.

    No one has weighed in yet. Be the first to share reasons for or against this statement.

    Sign in or register to share your perspective on this statement.

    Key Terms

    Inferential link(logic and epistemology)
    A logical connection between two ideas where one idea supports or leads to another idea.
    logical necessity(Distinguishing types of necessity)
    A property of statements that are true in all possible logical contexts, such as tautologies
    modal(in logic and metaphysics)
    Dealing with possibility and necessity—questions about what could be true, what must be true, and what's merely contingent (could go either way).
    modal force(as used in modal logic)
    The power or strength of a statement about necessity, possibility, or contingency—what makes something 'must be' versus 'might be'.
    probability framework(as used in statistics and logic)

    Next step

    Based on where you are in your exploration

    Explore a random proposition
    Start fresh with something unrelated.
    A system for thinking about how likely different outcomes are, using numbers and rules to measure uncertainty.

    Connections

    2 topics

    Truth & Knowledge1 linkedModality & Possibility1 linked

    Related

    Probabilistic reasoning does not yield a conclusion that the next ball will be a...

    Details

    Type
    claim
    Perspectives
    0 (0 for, 0 against)
    Edits
    1 edit

    Open for perspectives

    This idea is waiting for its first supporting or challenging perspective.

    Share the first perspective