If the probabilistic argument requires contested assumptions about what God would likely permit, the inductive step imports hidden theological commitments that undermine its secular force.
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The part of a mathematical proof where you show that if something is true for one case, it must also be true for the next case—like proving dominoes will keep falling if you knock one down.
probabilistic argument(Classification of argument structures for miracle claims)
An argument that aims to show that the conclusion is more probable than not, more probable than some fixed standard (e.g., 0.99), or far more probable given the evidence adduced than it is considered independent of that evidence.