While the Equal Weight View seems to be committed to the peers being justified in adopting the 0.8 degree of belief in \(H\), Kelly finds such a consequence implausible. After all, both peers badly misjudged the first-order evidence! This argument can be seen as an argument against Independence. In these cases, the disputed first-order evidence can exert an ‘upwards epistemic push” to mitigate the impact of the higher-order evidence. Kelly takes Independence on directly with the following case:
Extraction notes
Validity: Extracted via Max plan + API grounding/validity checks