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    LoyalLoyalJusticeJustice
    Made withinDC&Austin
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    Home/Original/inverse
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    Inverse View

    It is not the case that Maximin reasoning, as defended by Rawls and rooted in Wald's statistical decision theory, recommends choosing the bridge maximizing the worst-case survival probability, not the expected-value-maximizing mixed strategy.

    ?Set your confidence on the premises below to see your aggregate.

    Reasons For

    1 perspective
    Reason for
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    • 1.Maximin ignores the actual probabilities of outcomes, treating a 1% risk identically to a 99% risk if worst-cases are equal.
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    • 2.Mixed strategies can guarantee better average survival than pure maximin choices when failure probabilities are known or reasonably estimated.
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    • 3.Extreme risk-aversion (maximin) can paralyze decision-making, rejecting beneficial options that carry any non-zero worst-case cost.
      ?

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    Reasons Against

    1 perspective
    Reason against
    ?
    • 1.When worst outcomes are catastrophic or irreversible, protecting against them matters more than maximizing average outcomes.
      ?

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    • 2.Rational agents choosing under deep uncertainty about bridge failure rates should not assume probability distributions they cannot justify.
      ?

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    • 3.Maximin respects individual autonomy by ensuring no one bears disproportionate risk for collective expected-value gains.
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