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It is not the case that Metaphysical argument is a legitimate basis for evaluating the prospects of determinism, even absent a Final Theory of Physics
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Reasons For
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Reason for 1 of 2
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1.
Metaphysical arguments about determinism are only epistemically credible when constrained by the best available physical theories, as Quine's naturalism establishes.
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2.
Arguments constructed absent a Final Theory systematically risk encoding intuitions shaped by pre-quantum, pre-relativistic physics rather than genuine modal insight.
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3.
Therefore, metaphysical argument unconstrained by physics produces conclusions that reflect conceptual parochialism, not legitimate evaluation of determinism's prospects.
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Reason for 2 of 2
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1.
The historical record shows metaphysical arguments for determinism (e.g., Laplace's demon) were decisively overturned by empirical physics, not by rival metaphysics.
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2.
If metaphysical arguments are legitimate evaluative tools absent a Final Theory, then Laplacean determinism would have retained philosophical standing despite quantum mechanics.
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Reasons Against
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1.
We may never have a Final Theory of Everything in our lifetime
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2.
Even if we had such a theory, it remains unclear whether it would be deterministic or indeterministic
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3.
Physical and experimental grounds alone cannot currently settle the question of determinism
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