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    Carmelics

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    Made withinDC&Austin
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    Home/Original/inverse
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    Inverse View

    It is not the case that Mill's methods and Bayesian confirmation theory provide general frameworks for inductive reasoning without licensing all inductive arguments.

    ?Set your confidence on the premises below to see your aggregate.

    Reasons For

    1 perspective
    Reason for
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    • 1.Mill's methods presuppose causal closure and no hidden confounds, assumptions often violated in complex systems but never fully vindicated independently.
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    • 2.Bayesian theory merely transfers the problem: choosing priors is subjective, so it licenses inferences its users deem reasonable without principled discrimination.
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    • 3.Both frameworks remain silent on non-causal inductive patterns (analogical, abductive, statistical) that reasoning actually relies upon in practice.
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    Reasons Against

    1 perspective
    Reason against
    ?
    • 1.Mill's methods (agreement, difference, etc.) identify causal relationships through systematic elimination, avoiding arbitrary inductive leaps.
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    • 2.Bayesian confirmation requires explicit prior probabilities and likelihood ratios, which constrains inference to rational, mathematically defensible arguments.
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    • 3.Both frameworks reject crude induction (all observed swans are white) by demanding either systematic variation or probabilistic updating against evidence.
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