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    Home/Original/inverse
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    Inverse View

    It is not the case that Moore's Law no longer holds.

    ?Set your confidence on the premises below to see your aggregate.

    Reasons For

    1 perspective
    Reason for
    ?
    • 1.There is a physical lower limit to how small components can be made before they cease to function.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 2.Exponential growth in a domain does not continue indefinitely merely because it has done so for some period.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    Reasons Against

    2 perspectives
    Reason against 1 of 2
    ?
    • 1.Empirical data from 2015–2024 shows transistor density gains have slowed dramatically below the historical doubling rate.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 2.Intel, TSMC, and ASML have publicly acknowledged that sub-3nm scaling yields diminishing physical returns incompatible with Moore's original cadence.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 3.A law that systematically fails its predictive function in measurable, documented cases has ceased to hold by the standard criteria for empirical regularities.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    Reason against 2 of 2
    ?
    • 1.Kuhn's account of paradigm shifts entails that technological forecasting laws are revised when anomalous data accumulates beyond a threshold.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 2.The semiconductor industry's pivot to 3D stacking, chiplets, and heterogeneous integration signals a structural departure from planar transistor scaling.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 3.When engineers abandon the architectural assumptions underlying a law to sustain performance gains, the original law is no longer operative even if outputs appear continuous.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    Next step

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    Strongest counterpoint
    Explore the most compelling reason on the other side.