Moral luck theorists like Nagel treat circumstances as partially constitutive of the moral situation itself, not merely as inputs to a pre-fixed deliberative structure that counterfactuals could hold constant.
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counterfactuals(as used in logic and philosophy of free will (related to 'subjunctives of freedom'))
Statements about what *would* happen in situations that aren't actually happening—'if I had studied harder, I would have passed the test' is a counterfactual about a situation that didn't occur.