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    Overestimating the likelihood of success causes people to... — Carmelics
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    Home/Consequentialism
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    Supports→Dogmatism leads to cruelty

    Overestimating the likelihood of success causes people to exaggerate the expected utility of persecuting policies

    Consequentialism
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    Consequentialism

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    Skepticism2 linkedJustice & Punishment1 linked

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    Dogmatism causes people to overestimate the likelihood that their objectives wil...Dogmatism leads to crueltyPersecuting policies based on inflated expected utility lead to cruelty

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    Dogmatism leads to cruelty by inflating the expected utility of persec...76%The outcomes people achieve may bear no resemblance to the outcomes th...71%A positive expected payoff can justify adopting a lower-probability st...68%Persecuting policies based on inflated expected utility lead to cruelt...67%

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    SEP: russell-moral
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    Thus despite the desirability of socialism (in Russell’s eyes at any rate) the Bolshevik program had to be rejected for utilitarian or consequentialist reasons. (See also The Practice and Theory of Bolshevism, particularly Part II. ch.iv.) The Bolshevik “habit of militant certainty about doubtful matters” (Practice and Theory: xi) was not only irrational, but dangerous, since it led to pointless suffering. Hence “The Need for Political Skepticism”, the title of one of Russell’s essays, and a maj

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