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    Pragmatic success in action depends on the reliability of... — Carmelics
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    Challenges→Right opinion is less valuable than knowledge even when unreliable causal influences can be ruled out.

    Pragmatic success in action depends on the reliability of a belief's outcomes, not on the psychological certainty with which it is held.

    ?Rate how convincing each reason is below to see the overall strength.
    1 reason for
    1 reason against

    Reasons For

    1 perspective
    Reason for
    ?
    • 1.Actions guided by unreliable beliefs fail repeatedly regardless of how confident we feel, demonstrating outcomes are the true measure.
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    • 2.Psychological certainty can persist despite systematic failures, so it cannot be a reliable indicator of practical success.
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    • 3.Empirical testing and prediction accuracy are objective standards; subjective conviction is inherently subjective and variable.
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    Reasons Against

    1 perspective
    Reason against
    ?
    • 1.Psychological certainty causally influences action selection and persistence, shaping which outcomes are actually attempted or achieved.
      ?

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    • 2.Distinguishing 'reliability of outcomes' from the confidence needed to commit fully to action creates a false practical dichotomy.
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    • 3.In uncertain domains, conviction can enable discovery of reliable patterns others abandon too quickly due to doubt.
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    Connections

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    Truth & Knowledge1 linkedSkepticism1 linked

    Related

    Actions guided by unreliable beliefs fail repeatedly regardless of how confident...Distinguishing 'reliability of outcomes' from the confidence needed to commit fu...Empirical testing and prediction accuracy are objective standards; subjective co...In uncertain domains, conviction can enable discovery of reliable patterns other...
    +3 moreShow less
    Psychological certainty can persist despite systematic failures, so it cannot be...Psychological certainty causally influences action selection and persistence, sh...Right opinion is less valuable than knowledge even when unreliable causal influe...

    Details

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    claim
    Perspectives
    2 (1 for, 1 against)
    Edits
    1 edit