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    Probabilistic models can express whether many low-probabi... — Carmelics
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    Home/Modality & Possibility
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    Probabilistic models can express whether many low-probability events combined can outweigh even the highest-probability worlds, while plausibilistic models cannot

    Modality & PossibilityTruth & Knowledge
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    1 reason for
    2 reasons against

    Reasons For

    1 perspective
    Reason for
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    • 1.Probabilistic models support aggregation of probabilities
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    • 2.Aggregated probabilities play a key role in calculations of expected utility
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    • 3.Plausibility semantics cannot express aggregated probability comparisons
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    Reasons Against

    2 perspectives
    Reason against 1 of 2
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    • 1.Plausibilistic models using Grove sphere systems can represent infinite orderings that track cumulative evidential weight across possibility classes.
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    • 2.Spohn's ranking theory assigns negative ranks that aggregate across worlds, enabling comparative assessments structurally analogous to probabilistic summation.
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    • 3.The expressive gap between plausibilistic and probabilistic models is one of representation format, not fundamental combinatorial capacity.
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    Reason against 2 of 2
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    • 1.De Finetti's representation theorem shows probability functions are limit cases of qualitative comparative probability orderings, collapsing the alleged expressive divide.
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    • 2.If plausibilistic models can be extended to comparative probability structures, the claim misidentifies a contingent modeling choice as a principled semantic limitation.
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    Modality & PossibilityTruth & Knowledge

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    2 topics

    Consequentialism1 linkedPhilosophy of Language1 linked

    Related

    Aggregated probabilities play a key role in calculations of expected utilityDe Finetti's representation theorem shows probability functions are limit cases ...If plausibilistic models can be extended to comparative probability structures, ...Plausibilistic models using Grove sphere systems can represent infinite ordering...
    +4 moreShow less
    Plausibility semantics cannot express aggregated probability comparisonsProbabilistic models support aggregation of probabilitiesSpohn's ranking theory assigns negative ranks that aggregate across worlds, enab...

    Similar

    If belief is modelled using only possible worlds, every impossible bel...77%The probabilistic and modal conceptions of plausibility should be kept...76%Plausibility models yield a notion of belief closed under conjunction,...76%Specifying an epistemic-probability model requires only a prior probab...76%

    Source

    AI-extracted1/3 agreementValid
    SEP: logics-for-games
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    Both probabilistic and plausibilistic perspectives can express that some alternative is more likely than another. However, there are also conceptual differences between the two frameworks. Probabilistic models can aggregate, allowing their logic to express, for instance, whether many low-probability events combined can outweigh even the highest-probability worlds. Aggregated probabilities play a key role, for instance, in calculations of expected utility. Yet no such thing can be expressed in pl
    Extraction notes

    Validity: Extracted via Max plan + API grounding/validity checks

    Details

    The expressive gap between plausibilistic and probabilistic models is one of rep...
    Type
    claim
    Perspectives
    3 (1 for, 2 against)
    Edits
    1 edit