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    Carmelics

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    Home/Original/inverse
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    Inverse View

    It is not the case that Purely probabilistic relevance without deductive anchoring permits confirmation paradoxes where irrelevant hypotheses gain spurious support from unrelated evidence.

    ?Set your confidence on the premises below to see your aggregate.

    Reasons For

    1 perspective
    Reason for
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    • 1.Many successful scientific confirmations are probabilistic without deductive entailment: medical trials confirm drug efficacy via statistics alone.
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    • 2.Bayesian frameworks prevent the paradox through prior probabilities—unrelated evidence gets filtered by low likelihoods, not by requiring deduction.
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    • 3.Requiring deductive anchoring excludes legitimate inductive reasoning and makes confirmation too restrictive for empirical sciences.
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    Reasons Against

    1 perspective
    Reason against
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    • 1.Hempel's raven paradox shows pure probabilistic confirmation allows irrelevant evidence to support hypotheses without logical connection.
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    • 2.Without deductive constraints, any evidence raising H's probability counts equally, even when logically unrelated to H's core claims.
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    • 3.Deductive anchoring ensures evidence bears on what actually explains H, preventing spurious probabilistic correlations from confirming it.
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