Skip to content
Carmelics
TopicsThinkersChangesContributorsLoading account…

    Carmelics

    A reasoning platform. Break down any belief into clear reasons, explore both sides, and weigh the evidence honestly.

    Navigate

    • Topics
    • Search
    • Recent Changes
    • Contribute
    • How It Works
    • Glossary
    • Thinkers
    • Contributors
    • About
    • Statistics
    • Terms
    • Privacy

    Database

    Statements
    —
    Perspectives
    —
    Topics
    —

    Press ? for keyboard shortcuts

    LoyalLoyalJusticeJustice
    Made withinDC&Austin
    Statements
    321,452
    Perspectives
    108,905
    Topics
    42
    Real decision environments involve genuine Knightian unce... — Carmelics
    Home
    HistoryEditSee Inverse

    Part of a larger discussion

    Challenges→Savage's work formally completed expected utility theory (EUT)

    Real decision environments involve genuine Knightian uncertainty where the state space cannot be fully specified, leaving Savage's axioms without grounding.

    ?Rate how convincing each reason is below to see the overall strength.
    1 reason for
    1 reason against

    Reasons For

    1 perspective
    Reason for
    ?
    • 1.Historical surprise events (2008 crisis, COVID-19) demonstrate decision-makers couldn't enumerate relevant states beforehand, invalidating completeness.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 2.Savage's axioms require agents to assign probabilities to all conceivable outcomes, but genuine unknowns resist probabilistic quantification entirely.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 3.Real agents face 'unknown unknowns'—threats outside their epistemic model—making state space closure impossible rather than merely difficult.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    Reasons Against

    1 perspective
    Reason against
    ?
    • 1.Savage's framework applies to the agent's *subjective* model, not objective reality; agents always work with incomplete information regardless of true state space.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 2.Knightian uncertainty and probabilistic decision-making aren't mutually exclusive—agents can assign credences to unknown possibilities without full specification.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 3.Empirically, people make coherent decisions under deep uncertainty using satisficing heuristics; Savage's axioms describe ideals, not requirements for rational choice.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    Sign in or register to share your perspective on this statement.

    Next step

    Based on where you are in your exploration

    Strongest counterpoint
    Explore the most compelling reason on the other side.

    Connections

    2 topics

    Truth & Knowledge1 linkedConsequentialism1 linked

    Related

    Empirically, people make coherent decisions under deep uncertainty using satisfi...Historical surprise events (2008 crisis, COVID-19) demonstrate decision-makers c...Knightian uncertainty and probabilistic decision-making aren't mutually exclusiv...Real agents face 'unknown unknowns'—threats outside their epistemic model—making...
    +3 moreShow less
    Savage's axioms require agents to assign probabilities to all conceivable outcom...Savage's framework applies to the agent's *subjective* model, not objective real...Savage's work formally completed expected utility theory (EUT)

    Details

    Type
    claim
    Perspectives
    2 (1 for, 1 against)
    Edits
    1 edit