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    Selection is no more deterministic than drift at the leve... — Carmelics
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    Challenges→Drift is an evolutionary force, but a force of a different color from selection, mutation, and migration.

    Selection is no more deterministic than drift at the level of individual organisms — both are probabilistic processes described by expected value distributions.

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    Reasons For

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    • 1.Both selection and drift produce outcome distributions across populations that are mathematically describable by probability theory and expected values.
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    • 2.Individual organism survival/reproduction outcomes are contingent events; selection coefficients measure probabilistic advantages, not deterministic guarantees.
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    • 3.The difference between selection and drift is in distribution shape, not in the fundamental probabilistic nature of individual-level outcomes.
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    Reasons Against

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    • 1.Selection creates directional bias in outcome probabilities; drift produces symmetrical random walks—fundamentally different generative mechanisms.
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    • 2.Selection's efficacy increases with population size while drift's decreases; this inverse relationship reveals mechanistic differences, not mere perspective shifts.
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    • 3.Describing selection by expected values obscures that consistent fitness differences create reproducible, non-random population trajectories across replicates.
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    Related

    Both selection and drift produce outcome distributions across populations that a...Describing selection by expected values obscures that consistent fitness differe...Drift is an evolutionary force, but a force of a different color from selection,...Individual organism survival/reproduction outcomes are contingent events; select...
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    Selection creates directional bias in outcome probabilities; drift produces symm...Selection's efficacy increases with population size while drift's decreases; thi...The difference between selection and drift is in distribution shape, not in the ...

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