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    The assignment of prior probabilities P[h_i | b] lacks an... — Carmelics
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    Challenges→The Bayesian account of evidential support extends the hypothetical-deductive approach to cover cases where a hypothesis does not deductively entail or preclude an evidential outcome, but instead assigns a probability to that outcome

    The assignment of prior probabilities P[h_i | b] lacks an objective foundation, making Bayesian 'extension' of HD-confirmation an artifact of subjective credences rather than evidential logic.

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    Key Terms

    Bayesian
    # Bayesian Bayesian refers to a way of thinking about probability and uncertainty that starts with what you already believe, then updates that belief as you get new evidence. Rather than treating probability as just counting how often something happens, it treats it as a measure of how confident you are about something. This approach is named after Thomas Bayes, an 18th-century mathematician, and it's widely used today in everything from medical testing to spam filters because it mirrors how humans naturally learn and change their minds.
    Evidential logic(in epistemology and philosophy of science)
    The rules and principles for how evidence should rationally connect to conclusions, independent of what any individual person happens to believe.
    HD-confirmation(A model of confirmation in philosophy of science)
    Hypothetico-deductive confirmation: evidence e HD-confirms hypothesis h (given background knowledge k) when h together with k logically entails e
    Objective foundation(in epistemology)

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    A basis that's independent of personal opinion or belief—something that would be true the same way for everyone, like a scientific law.
    P[h_i | b](in symbolic logic and Bayesian reasoning)
    Mathematical notation meaning 'the probability of hypothesis i being true, given background information b'—the vertical bar means 'given' or 'assuming.'
    Subjective credences(in epistemology and probability)
    Personal degrees of belief or confidence—what *you* think is likely based on your own judgment, not on objective facts everyone would agree on.
    artifact(Contrasted with real cellular structures in evaluating microscopy results)
    A feature in a micrograph produced by the methods of preparation rather than by actual structures in the cell
    extension(Semantics and philosophy of language)
    Another term for reference, i.e., the object or set of objects a term picks out
    prior probabilities(Contrasted with dynamic principles; Carnap's system cited as an example)
    Initial probability assignments that are static and do not by themselves account for belief revision over time

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    Truth & Knowledge1 linkedSkepticism1 linked

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    The Bayesian account of evidential support extends the hypothetical-deductive ap...

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