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    Carmelics

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    Made withinDC&Austin
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    Home/Original/inverse
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    Inverse View

    It is not the case that The assumption of a miracle can sometimes be the most rational explanation for a reported event

    ?Set your confidence on the premises below to see your aggregate.

    Reasons For

    2 perspectives
    Reason for 1 of 2
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    • 1.Hume's maxim holds: the probability of testimony being false always exceeds the probability of a genuine violation of natural law.
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    • 2.A miracle, by definition, requires suspending laws whose very evidential weight dwarfs any finite body of testimonial evidence.
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    • 3.Therefore, miracle-explanations are structurally precluded from achieving higher probability than naturalistic alternatives, however imperfect.
      ?

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    Reason for 2 of 2
    ?
    • 1.Swinburne and Ockham's razor jointly demand that explanatory posits be minimized unless evidential gain clearly justifies them.
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    • 2.Invoking divine intervention introduces an unconstrained explanatory variable that can accommodate any outcome, thereby losing falsifiability and predictive content.
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    • 3.An explanation that can accommodate any data provides no genuine rational traction over rivals and cannot count as 'most rational' in any rigorous Bayesian or abductive framework.
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    Reasons Against

    1 perspective
    Reason against
    ?
    • 1.It can happen that every possible explanation for a fact requires presupposing certain unusual events
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    • 2.When every explanation requires unusual events, the assumption of a miracle may be the least improbable among competing explanations
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    • 3.The least improbable explanation is the most probable explanation
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    Next step

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    Strongest counterpoint
    Explore the most compelling reason on the other side.