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    The claim conflates 'fits expectations better' with 'is m... — Carmelics
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    Challenges→If the world's observable structure better fits an aesthetically motivated deity's expectations than a morally perfect one's, Bayesian conditionalization favors aesthetic deism with each confirming observation.

    The claim conflates 'fits expectations better' with 'is more probable'; prior probabilities matter enormously in Bayesian reasoning, yet aesthetic deism typically starts with implausibly high priors.

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    Key Terms

    Bayesian reasoning(the overall framework of priors, posteriors, and how evidence changes beliefs)
    A mathematical way of updating your beliefs when you get new evidence, named after Thomas Bayes, an 18th-century mathematician.
    Conflates(in argumentation and logic)
    Treats two different things as if they're the same thing, or mixes them up in a way that causes confusion.
    aesthetic deism(The alternative hypothesis employed in the decisive evidence argument)
    An alternative hypothesis to omni-theism, posited as many times more probable than omni-theism; arguably a form of theism itself
    implausibly high priors(what the statement accuses aesthetic deism of doing)
    Starting assumptions that are unreasonably generous or unlikely to be true in the first place.
    prior probabilities

    Next step

    Based on where you are in your exploration

    Explore a random proposition
    Start fresh with something unrelated.
    (Contrasted with dynamic principles; Carnap's system cited as an example)
    Initial probability assignments that are static and do not by themselves account for belief revision over time
    probability(as used in mathematics and logic)
    A number between 0 and 1 that describes how likely something is to happen; 0.5 means 50% chance, 1 means certain, 0 means impossible.

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    If the world's observable structure better fits an aesthetically motivated deity...

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    If the world's observable structure better fits an aesthetically motivated deity...

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