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Inverse View
It is not the case that The evidential argument from evil, as Draper formulates it, challenges not theism simpliciter but the likelihood ratio between theism and naturalism.
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Reasons For
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Reason for
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1.
Even if evil is more probable under naturalism, this doesn't avoid undercutting core theistic commitments about omnipotence and benevolence unless both are retained.
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2.
Comparing likelihoods between theism and naturalism presupposes prior probabilities and background knowledge that heavily favor one framework, making the comparison circular.
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3.
Draper's approach still requires showing evil makes theism less probable than alternatives—not merely that naturalism predicts evil better, which are different claims.
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Reasons Against
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Reason against
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1.
Draper's formulation explicitly compares P(evil|theism) to P(evil|naturalism), making it a comparative likelihood argument rather than absolute refutation.
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2.
Theistic responses can preserve God's existence by adjusting auxiliary hypotheses about divine purposes, showing the argument targets comparative plausibility.
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3.
Naturalism predicts indifference to suffering; theism predicts benevolent intervention—their predicted frequencies of evil genuinely differ in probabilistic strength.
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