The inference from distributional shape alone to causal mechanism commits the base-rate fallacy: multiple generative processes can produce identical marginal frequency distributions.

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Base-rate fallacy(as used in logic and probability): A mistake in reasoning where you ignore how often something actually happens overall and instead focus too much on one specific case or recent example.
Distributional shape(what we observe when we look at data): The pattern or visual form that data makes when you plot it out—for example, whether it's spread evenly, clustered in the middle, or lopsided to one side.
Generative processes(as the explanation for how biological, thermodynamic, and mathematical structures arise): Simple rules or mechanisms that automatically create complex patterns and structures without being guided by any plan or intention.
Marginal frequency distributions(the observable pattern in the data): A way of counting and displaying how often different outcomes appear in data, looking at each outcome separately rather than how they relate to each other.

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