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    The Old Evidence Problem identified by Garber and Glymour... — Carmelics
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    Challenges→A hypothesis need not be deductively related to evidence in order to bear on it probabilistically

    The Old Evidence Problem identified by Garber and Glymour shows Bayesian probabilistic relevance fails when evidence is already known, exposing its deductive dependency.

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    1 reason for
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    Reasons For

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    • 1.Bayesian confirmation requires P(E|H) > P(E) to show evidential support, but old evidence satisfies P(E)=1, making the ratio undefined.
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    • 2.Theories gain justification through novel predictions, not post-hoc fit to known facts. Old evidence cannot distinguish between competing hypotheses.
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    • 3.If Bayesianism allows old evidence to confirm theories, it cannot explain why retroactively fitting any theory to facts seems confirmatorily weak.
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    Reasons Against

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    • 1.The problem conflates epistemic justification with historical discovery. Known evidence still confirms via conditional probability calculations.
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    • 2.Bayesian solutions exist: using priors about what hypotheses physicists would have proposed given the evidence solves the problem without abandoning Bayesianism.
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    • 3.Many scientific confirmations involve old evidence (gravitational lensing confirmed general relativity). Rejecting such cases as non-confirmatory is implausibly restrictive.
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    Related

    A hypothesis need not be deductively related to evidence in order to bear on it ...Bayesian confirmation requires P(E|H) > P(E) to show evidential support, but old...Bayesian solutions exist: using priors about what hypotheses physicists would ha...If Bayesianism allows old evidence to confirm theories, it cannot explain why re...
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    Many scientific confirmations involve old evidence (gravitational lensing confir...The problem conflates epistemic justification with historical discovery. Known e...Theories gain justification through novel predictions, not post-hoc fit to known...

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