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    The probability assigned to a statistical hypothesis shou... — Carmelics
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    The probability assigned to a statistical hypothesis should be interpreted epistemically (as strength of belief in the hypothesis).

    SkepticismTruth & Knowledge
    ?Rate how convincing each reason is below to see the overall strength.
    1 reason for
    2 reasons against

    Reasons For

    1 perspective
    Reason for
    ?
    • 1.A statistical hypothesis cannot be seen as a repeatable event.
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    • 2.A statistical hypothesis cannot be seen as an event that might have some tendency of occurring.
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    • 3.A physical interpretation of probability requires the event to be repeatable or to have some tendency of occurring.
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    Reasons Against

    2 perspectives
    Reason against 1 of 2
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    • 1.Epistemic probability assignments to hypotheses require a principled method for determining prior probabilities, which Bayesians have failed to uniquely specify.
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    • 2.Without a unique prior, the epistemic interpretation collapses into subjective arbitrariness, undermining the objectivity that scientific inference demands.
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    • 3.Frequentist accounts (Neyman, Pearson) ground inference in long-run error rates without requiring priors, achieving objectivity the epistemic view cannot.
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    Reason against 2 of 2
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    • 1.The argument's premise that hypotheses cannot be treated as repeatable events conflates the hypothesis with the data-generating process it describes.
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    • 2.Frequentists like von Mises assign probabilities to outcomes of repeatable experimental procedures, not to hypotheses directly, making the supporting argument's target a strawman.
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    • 3.Neyman-Pearson theory replaces probability-of-hypothesis with controlled error probabilities, providing a coherent non-epistemic framework the argument fails to refute.
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    Connections

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    Modality & Possibility3 linked

    Related

    A physical interpretation of probability requires the event to be repeatable or ...A statistical hypothesis cannot be seen as a repeatable event.A statistical hypothesis cannot be seen as an event that might have some tendenc...Epistemic probability assignments to hypotheses require a principled method for ...
    +5 moreShow less
    Frequentist accounts (Neyman, Pearson) ground inference in long-run error rates ...Frequentists like von Mises assign probabilities to outcomes of repeatable exper...Neyman-Pearson theory replaces probability-of-hypothesis with controlled error p...The argument's premise that hypotheses cannot be treated as repeatable events co...Without a unique prior, the epistemic interpretation collapses into subjective a...

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    Source

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    The overall question here is how we should understand the probability assigned to a statistical hypothesis. Naturally the interpretation will be epistemic: the probability expresses the strength of belief in the hypothesis. It makes little sense to attempt a physical interpretation since the hypothesis cannot be seen as a repeatable event, or as an event that might have some tendency of occurring.
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    Details

    Type
    claim
    Perspectives
    3 (1 for, 2 against)
    Edits
    1 edit