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    Carmelics

    A reasoning platform. Break down any belief into clear reasons, explore both sides, and weigh the evidence honestly.

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    LoyalLoyalJusticeJustice
    Made withinDC&Austin
    Statements
    321,452
    Perspectives
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    42
    Home/Original/inverse
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    Inverse View

    It is not the case that There is at least some provisional reason for thinking that hypothesis h might actually be true.

    ?Set your confidence on the premises below to see your aggregate.

    Reasons For

    2 perspectives
    Reason for 1 of 2
    ?
    • 1.An indefinitely large number of competing hypotheses can equally explain any surprising fact e, making none individually privileged.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 2.Without a principled method for restricting the hypothesis space, abductive inference licenses belief in arbitrarily many contradictory hypotheses.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 3.Therefore, explanatory success alone cannot constitute even provisional epistemic reason favoring h over its rivals.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    Reason for 2 of 2
    ?
    • 1.Van Fraassen's argument shows that 'inference to the best explanation' smuggles in an undefended premise that the best available explanation is likely true.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 2.The history of science demonstrates that empirically successful hypotheses—including Newtonian mechanics and caloric theory—were later shown to be false.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 3.Abduction therefore warrants only that h is worth investigating, not that h has any positive probability of being true.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    Reasons Against

    1 perspective
    Reason against
    ?
    • Some otherwise surprising fact e would be a reasonably expectable occurrence were hypothesis h true.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

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    Strongest counterpoint
    Explore the most compelling reason on the other side.