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    Carmelics

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    LoyalLoyalJusticeJustice
    Made withinDC&Austin
    Statements
    321,452
    Perspectives
    108,905
    Topics
    42
    Home/Original/inverse
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    Inverse View

    It is not the case that Treating prior experience as lexically superior to testimonial evidence is a dogmatic asymmetry incompatible with Bayesian norms of rational belief updating.

    ?Set your confidence on the premises below to see your aggregate.

    Reasons For

    1 perspective
    Reason for
    ?
    • 1.Direct experience provides immediate sensory access to facts; testimony requires trusting intermediaries, introducing systematic vulnerabilities.
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    • 2.Prior experience calibrates one's ability to evaluate testimony reliability itself—uneducated priors make Bayesian updating worse, not better.
      ?

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    • 3.Some domains (mathematics, distant history) offer no direct experience; asymmetric weighting protects against testimony in domains where we're epistemically helpless.
      ?

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    Reasons Against

    1 perspective
    Reason against
    ?
    • 1.Bayesian rationality requires updating beliefs proportionally to evidence strength, not source type. Testimony and experience are both evidence.
      ?

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    • 2.Privileging prior experience assumes it's inherently more reliable, but testimony from experts often outperforms individual experience in accuracy.
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    • 3.Lexical prioritization of experience prevents rational incorporation of testimony that should shift credence given its evidential weight.
      ?

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