Skip to content
Carmelics
TopicsThinkersChangesContributorsLoading account…

    Carmelics

    A reasoning platform. Break down any belief into clear reasons, explore both sides, and weigh the evidence honestly.

    Navigate

    • Topics
    • Search
    • Recent Changes
    • Contribute
    • How It Works
    • Glossary
    • Thinkers
    • Contributors
    • About
    • Statistics
    • Terms
    • Privacy

    Database

    Statements
    —
    Perspectives
    —
    Topics
    —

    Press ? for keyboard shortcuts

    LoyalLoyalJusticeJustice
    Made withinDC&Austin
    Statements
    321,452
    Perspectives
    108,905
    Topics
    42
    When the reference class is underdetermined, the likeliho... — Carmelics
    Home
    HistoryEditSee Inverse

    Part of a larger discussion

    Supports→The likelihood ratio of naked statistical evidence in cases such as Prisoner and Gatecrasher is strictly speaking unknown, not determinately one or greater than one.

    When the reference class is underdetermined, the likelihood ratio inherits that indeterminacy and cannot be resolved to a single value by logical analysis alone.

    ?Rate how convincing each reason is below to see the overall strength.
    1 reason for
    1 reason against

    Reasons For

    1 perspective
    Reason for
    ?
    • 1.Reference class selection involves conceptual choices that outrun purely logical constraints, making multiple classes equally defensible.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 2.Likelihood ratios depend mathematically on reference class composition; different classes yield different ratios by necessity, not mere opinion.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 3.Logic alone cannot determine which features are relevant for classification without additional substantive assumptions about the world.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    Reasons Against

    1 perspective
    Reason against
    ?
    • 1.Some reference class choices are demonstrably incoherent or self-undermining, allowing logical analysis to eliminate poor candidates and narrow options.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 2.Practical convergence often occurs: competing reference classes produce similar likelihood ratios when properly constructed, suggesting underlying determinacy.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 3.Claiming indeterminacy risks vacuity; if no logical analysis helps at all, the claim becomes unfalsifiable and explains nothing specific.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    Sign in or register to share your perspective on this statement.

    Next step

    Based on where you are in your exploration

    Strongest counterpoint
    Explore the most compelling reason on the other side.

    Connections

    2 topics

    Truth & Knowledge1 linkedSkepticism1 linked

    Related

    Claiming indeterminacy risks vacuity; if no logical analysis helps at all, the c...Likelihood ratios depend mathematically on reference class composition; differen...Logic alone cannot determine which features are relevant for classification with...Practical convergence often occurs: competing reference classes produce similar ...
    +3 moreShow less
    Reference class selection involves conceptual choices that outrun purely logical...Some reference class choices are demonstrably incoherent or self-undermining, al...The likelihood ratio of naked statistical evidence in cases such as Prisoner and...

    Details

    Type
    claim
    Perspectives
    2 (1 for, 1 against)
    Edits
    1 edit