1883 – 1946
John Maynard Keynes (1883–1946) was a British economist and philosopher whose 'A Treatise on Probability' (1921) made foundational contributions to the logical theory of probability and inductive reasoning. He argued that probability relations are objective logical relationships between propositions, not merely subjective degrees of belief. Though best known for revolutionizing macroeconomics, his philosophical work on induction and analogy remains influential in epistemology and philosophy of science.
Developed a logical (non-frequentist) theory of probability in 'A Treatise on Probability' (1921)
Analyzed analogical and inductive inference as objective logical relations between propositions
Examined the weight of evidence and its role in rational belief under uncertainty
Critiqued frequentist and subjectivist accounts of probability
Influenced later philosophers of induction including Carnap and Ramsey