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    Carmelics

    A reasoning platform. Break down any belief into clear reasons, explore both sides, and weigh the evidence honestly.

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    LoyalLoyalJusticeJustice
    Made withinDC&Austin
    Statements
    321,452
    Perspectives
    108,905
    Topics
    42
    Home/Original/inverse
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    Inverse View

    It is not the case that A genuinely contingent future state of affairs cannot be made epistemically determinate by any knower's self-assessment of their own reliability, since reliability tracks facts, not constitutes them.

    ?Set your confidence on the premises below to see your aggregate.

    Reasons For

    1 perspective
    Reason for
    ?
    • 1.Self-knowledge of one's track record can epistemically justify prediction without determining future facts—justification and constitution differ.
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    • 2.If reliability-tracking suffices for justified belief about contingent matters, then determinacy may depend on justified belief, not metaphysical facts.
      ?

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    • 3.The claim conflates epistemic determinacy (justifiably knowable) with metaphysical determinacy (factually settled)—these are distinct notions.
      ?

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    Reasons Against

    1 perspective
    Reason against
    ?
    • 1.Epistemic justification consists in tracking mind-independent facts; self-assessment alone cannot create facts about what will occur.
      ?

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    • 2.A knower's reliability is calibrated against actual outcomes; confidence in one's reliability presupposes those outcomes already obtain or not.
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    • 3.Contingent futures lack determinate truth-values independent of their occurrence; no internal mental state can retroactively determine them.
      ?

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