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    A genuinely contingent future state of affairs cannot be ... — Carmelics
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    Challenges→God can achieve infallible knowledge of future contingents through a 'bootstrapping' process.

    A genuinely contingent future state of affairs cannot be made epistemically determinate by any knower's self-assessment of their own reliability, since reliability tracks facts, not constitutes them.

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    Reasons For

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    Reason for
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    • 1.Epistemic justification consists in tracking mind-independent facts; self-assessment alone cannot create facts about what will occur.
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    • 2.A knower's reliability is calibrated against actual outcomes; confidence in one's reliability presupposes those outcomes already obtain or not.
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    • 3.Contingent futures lack determinate truth-values independent of their occurrence; no internal mental state can retroactively determine them.
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    Reasons Against

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    Reason against
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    • 1.Self-knowledge of one's track record can epistemically justify prediction without determining future facts—justification and constitution differ.
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    • 2.If reliability-tracking suffices for justified belief about contingent matters, then determinacy may depend on justified belief, not metaphysical facts.
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    • 3.The claim conflates epistemic determinacy (justifiably knowable) with metaphysical determinacy (factually settled)—these are distinct notions.
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    Key Terms

    Constitutes(used to explain how practice creates the concept of responsibility)
    Forms or makes up the basis of something; creates the foundation for how something exists or works.
    contingent(De Interpretatione 12–13)
    Equated with 'possible'; on the two-sided interpretation, contingency excludes necessity (possibility implies non-necessity).
    epistemically determinate(describing whether future states can be known)
    Something is epistemically determinate when a person can know for certain what it is or whether it's true, based on available evidence or reasoning.
    epistemology/epistemic(the 'epistemic' in 'epistemically determinate')
    Epistemology is the study of knowledge and how we know things. 'Epistemic' means 'related to knowledge or knowing.'
    knower's self-assessment of reliability(what cannot make future events knowable)
    When someone judges how trustworthy or accurate they themselves are—like asking 'How good am I at predicting things?'
    reliability(what induction is trying to prove about itself)
    The quality of consistently producing correct or trustworthy results; something you can depend on to work.

    Connections

    1 topic

    Free Will & Foreknowledge1 linked

    Related

    A knower's reliability is calibrated against actual outcomes; confidence in one'...Contingent futures lack determinate truth-values independent of their occurrence...Epistemic justification consists in tracking mind-independent facts; self-assess...God can achieve infallible knowledge of future contingents through a 'bootstrapp...

    Details

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    claim
    Perspectives
    2 (1 for, 1 against)
    Edits
    1 edit
    +3 moreShow less
    If reliability-tracking suffices for justified belief about contingent matters, ...Self-knowledge of one's track record can epistemically justify prediction withou...The claim conflates epistemic determinacy (justifiably knowable) with metaphysic...