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    A hypothesis that begins with a large prior advantage and... — Carmelics
    Home/Natural Theology
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    Challenges→Omni-theism is very probably false

    A hypothesis that begins with a large prior advantage and runs at roughly the same speed in accumulating supporting evidence wins by a large margin in posterior probability

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    Natural TheologyTruth & Knowledge

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    Omni-theism is very probably falseSource physicalism fits the totality of relevant evidence at least as well as om...Source physicalism is much less specific than omni-theism and therefore has a mu...When two hypotheses explain the evidence equally well, the one with the higher p...

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    A hypothesis can defeat a rival not only by having higher prior probab...84%When two hypotheses explain the evidence equally well, the one with th...84%The posterior probability of the true hypothesis approaches 1 as evide...79%Approaching the truth faster—assigning probability above a threshold t...78%

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    SEP: atheism-agnosticism
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    Notice that the general strategy of the particular version of the low priors argument discussed above is to find an alternative to omni-theism that is much less specific than omni-theism (and partly for that reason much more probable intrinsically), while at the same time having enough content of the right sort to fit the totality of the relevant data at least as well as theism does. In other words, the goal is to find a runner like source physicalism that begins the race with a large head start

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