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    LoyalLoyalJusticeJustice
    Made withinDC&Austin
    Home/Original/inverse
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    Inverse View

    It is not the case that An agent who is ignorant about the color of a marble is thereby rendered very opinionated about whether the color is Blue.

    ?Set your confidence on the premises below to see your aggregate.

    Reasons For

    1 perspective
    Reason for
    ?
    • 1.Ignorance about the color of a marble requires equal probability distribution across all colors in the partition.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 2.If the partition contains many colors, each color receives probability close to 0, including Blue.
      ?

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    • 3.Assigning near-zero probability to Blue constitutes being very opinionated that the marble is not Blue.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    Reasons Against

    2 perspectives
    Reason against 1 of 2
    ?
    • 1.Ignorance, on the Principle of Indifference (Keynes, *Treatise on Probability*), mandates uniform probability across all live hypotheses in a partition.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 2.A uniform distribution over n colors assigns probability (n-1)/n to 'not Blue', which for large n constitutes a high-confidence belief that the marble is not Blue.
      ?

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    • 3.Holding high-confidence belief that the marble is not Blue just is being very opinionated about whether the color is Blue, satisfying the claim's core assertion.
      ?

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    Reason against 2 of 2
    ?
    • 1.On Levi's epistemology of inquiry, suspending judgment requires treating all hypotheses as permissible, but permissibility is distinct from assigning equal credence across them.
      ?

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    • 2.When credences are forced by symmetry constraints (van Fraassen's Reflection and symmetry arguments), the agent's doxastic state is fully determined by the partition structure, not by genuine neutrality.
      ?

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    • 3.A fully determined doxastic state about Blue—even one yielding low credence—constitutes being opinionated rather than genuinely ignorant, vindicating the claim that ignorance paradoxically generates strong opinions.
      ?

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