Analogical arguments cannot provide Bayesian confirmation of a hypothesis

” A modal extension of this principle runs roughly as follows: if problems might be essentially the same, then they might have essentially the same solution. There are two modalities here. , that the source and target domains ‘might be essentially the same’ in relevant respects. ’ To call a hypothesis prima facie plausible is to elevate it to the point where it merits investigation, since it might be correct. The argument is vulnerable to two sorts of concerns. First, there are questions about