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    Any probabilistic rule encoding 'explanatory virtue' as a... — Carmelics
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    Supports→Probabilistic versions of abduction are either redundant or probabilistically incoherent, and therefore irrational to follow.

    Any probabilistic rule encoding 'explanatory virtue' as a likelihood boost must assign higher posteriors to hypotheses independent of their prior probability mass, violating the probability calculus.

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    Key Terms

    Explanatory virtue(as used in philosophy of science)
    A desirable quality that makes a scientific explanation good—like simplicity, consistency with evidence, or making accurate predictions.
    Likelihood boost(as used in Bayesian reasoning)
    An increase in how probable or likely something is considered to be based on new information or reasoning.
    Posterior
    # Posterior In statistics and probability, "posterior" refers to what we believe or know about something *after* we've observed new evidence or data. It's the updated conclusion you reach by combining what you believed before (called the "prior") with new information you've learned. For example, if you initially thought it might rain today based on the season, your posterior belief would be your updated expectation after checking the weather forecast.
    Prior probability(Used to argue that theism's low prior probability is not overcome by ambiguous or absent evidence)
    The intrinsic probability of a hypothesis before taking any evidence into account

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    Probabilistic rule(as used in philosophy of science and epistemology)
    A method or guideline that uses probability (the likelihood of something being true) to make decisions or draw conclusions.
    Probability calculus(as a mathematical framework)
    A mathematical system of rules for calculating and working with probabilities, designed so that everything stays logically consistent.
    hypothesis(Phase three of Dewey's pattern of inquiry)
    A construction that imaginatively utilizes both theoretical ideas and perceptual facts to forecast the possible consequences of various operations

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    Truth & Knowledge1 linkedSkepticism1 linked

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    Probabilistic versions of abduction are either redundant or probabilistically in...

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