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    Bayesian conditioning is the probabilistic counterpart of... — Carmelics
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    Bayesian conditioning is the probabilistic counterpart of logical public announcements when new information is accepted as irrevocably true by all agents.

    Philosophy of LanguageTruth & Knowledge
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    2 reasons against

    Reasons For

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    Reason for
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    • 1.Hard information is accepted as irrevocably true by all agents.
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    • 2.Computing beliefs after a public announcement means recomputing in the submodel consisting of all states where the received information was true.
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    • 3.Recalculating probabilities in Bayesian update uses exactly the same mechanism as recomputing in that submodel.
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    Reasons Against

    2 perspectives
    Reason against 1 of 2
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    • 1.Bayesian conditioning requires a prior probability over the entire possibility space, but logical public announcements can introduce wholly novel propositions with no prior.
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    • 2.When an announcement concerns an event outside the agent's prior sigma-algebra, conditionalization is undefined, while the logical submodel operation remains well-formed.
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    • 3.Therefore the two operations diverge precisely at the limit cases that matter most epistemically, revealing a structural asymmetry the claim conceals.
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    Reason against 2 of 2
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    • 1.Jeffrey conditionalization, not simple Bayesian conditioning, is the correct probabilistic model for evidence that shifts credences without certainty, as Richard Jeffrey argued in 'The Logic of Decision'.
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    • 2.Public announcements in dynamic epistemic logic install hard certainty (probability 1), but empirical evidence routinely fails to warrant such certainty, making the logical model an idealization that Bayesian practice does not uniformly endorse.
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    • 3.If Bayesian conditioning and public announcements only align under the special assumption of probability-1 updating, the claimed 'counterpart' relation holds only for a narrow, non-representative class of epistemic updates.
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    Related

    Bayesian conditioning requires a prior probability over the entire possibility s...Computing beliefs after a public announcement means recomputing in the submodel ...Hard information is accepted as irrevocably true by all agents.If Bayesian conditioning and public announcements only align under the special a...
    +5 moreShow less
    Jeffrey conditionalization, not simple Bayesian conditioning, is the correct pro...Public announcements in dynamic epistemic logic install hard certainty (probabil...Recalculating probabilities in Bayesian update uses exactly the same mechanism a...Therefore the two operations diverge precisely at the limit cases that matter mo...When an announcement concerns an event outside the agent's prior sigma-algebra, ...

    Similar

    Bayesian conditioning and logical public announcements track each othe...85%If the conditioning proposition A entails E, then being given A is bei...82%When a conditioning proposition entails the event E, the conditional c...79%A conditioning proposition B with probability zero cannot be handled d...75%

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    SEP: logics-for-games
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    If the new information is of the hard type, accepted as irrevocably true by all agents, the probabilistic counterpart of logical public announcements is Bayesian conditioning. Both notions track each other at a semantic level, meaning that their outputs amount to the same thing. Computing beliefs after a public announcement means recomputing in the submodel consisting of all states where the information received was true. This is exactly the same mechanism as for recalculating probabilities in B
    Extraction notes

    Validity: Extracted via Max plan + API grounding/validity checks

    Details

    Type
    claim
    Perspectives
    3 (1 for, 2 against)
    Edits
    1 edit