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    Billy's throw has some degree of influence on the bottle'... — Carmelics
    Home/Causation
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    Challenges→The new counterfactual theory of causation does not handle late preemption completely satisfactorily

    Billy's throw has some degree of influence on the bottle's shattering because if Billy had thrown his rock earlier and differently, the bottle would have shattered earlier and differently

    Causation
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    Topics

    Causation

    Key Terms

    Counterfactual reasoning(the phrase 'could have been wrong' imagines an alternative to what actually happened)
    Thinking about 'what if' scenarios—imagining what would have happened under different circumstances than what actually occurred.
    causation(Lewis's counterfactual theory of causation)
    Event C causes event E if and only if there exists a chain C, D1, …, Dn, E such that each member (except C) is counterfactually dependent on the preceding event; causation is the ancestral of counterfactual dependence
    degree of influence(Lewis's revised counterfactual framework)
    The extent to which altering an event counterfactually would alter the effect, used as a measure of causal relevance within Lewis's new theory

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    Lewis must dismiss these counterfactual dependencies as too distant to be releva...Similar alterations of Suzy's throw are treated as relevant to Suzy's causal inf...The new counterfactual theory of causation does not handle late preemption compl...

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    Suzy's rock in mid-trajectory depends on Suzy's initial throw, but the...93%There is no causal dependence between Suzy's throw and the shattering ...92%Suzy's throw caused the bottle to shatter, not Billy's throw91%Billy's throw would have shattered the bottle only if Suzy had not thr...91%

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    SEP: causation-counterfactual
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    There is, however, some reason for scepticism about whether the new theory handles the examples of late preemption and trumping completely satisfactorily. In the example of late preemption, Billy’s throw has some degree of influence on the shattering of the bottle. For if Billy had thrown his rock earlier (so that it preceded Suzy’s throw) and in a different manner, the bottle would have shattered earlier and in a different manner. Likewise, the sergeant’s command has some degree of influence on

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