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    Home/Original/inverse
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    Inverse View

    It is not the case that Causal loops are impossible under Mellor's probabilistic account of causation.

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    Reasons For

    2 perspectives
    Reason for 1 of 2
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    • 1.Mellor's probabilistic condition must be evaluated relative to a background situation k, and in a loop, k itself includes the causal structure connecting a and b.
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    • 2.When k encodes the loop's causal history, P(b|a) in k can exceed P(b|~a) in k, satisfying Mellor's condition even for loop-internal causation.
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    • 3.Therefore, the four-chain argument smuggles in a loop-neutral background situation, begging the question against the coherence of loops within Mellor's own framework.
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    Reason for 2 of 2
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    • 1.Horwich and Dummett have argued that causal loops require only internal probabilistic coherence, not that each link raise the probability of its successor unconditionally.
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    • 2.Mellor's account can be read as requiring probability-raising relative to the actual causal situation, which for a loop is the loop itself taken as the reference class.
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    • 3.Under this reading, the four-chain distribution is an artifact of artificially mixing loop and non-loop populations, not a refutation of loop-internal causation.
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    Reasons Against

    1 perspective
    Reason against
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    • 1.Mellor defines a causal relation between singular events a and b as a situation k in which the probability of b given a is greater than the probability of b given not-a.
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    • 2.In the four-chain distribution of tokens (G-chains and H-chains), the number of chains combining b with a equals the number of chains not combining b with a.
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    • 3.When the number of chains combining b with a equals those not combining b with a, P(b|a) = P(b|~a), meaning a does not raise the probability of b.
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