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    Causal loops are impossible under Mellor's probabilistic ... — Carmelics
    Home/Modality & Possibility
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    Causal loops are impossible under Mellor's probabilistic account of causation.

    Causation
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    1 reason for
    2 reasons against

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    Reasons For

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    • 1.Mellor defines a causal relation between singular events a and b as a situation k in which the probability of b given a is greater than the probability of b given not-a.
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    • 2.In the four-chain distribution of tokens (G-chains and H-chains), the number of chains combining b with a equals the number of chains not combining b with a.
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    • 3.When the number of chains combining b with a equals those not combining b with a, P(b|a) = P(b|~a), meaning a does not raise the probability of b.
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    Reasons Against

    2 perspectives
    Reason against 1 of 2
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    • 1.Mellor's probabilistic condition must be evaluated relative to a background situation k, and in a loop, k itself includes the causal structure connecting a and b.
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    • 2.When k encodes the loop's causal history, P(b|a) in k can exceed P(b|~a) in k, satisfying Mellor's condition even for loop-internal causation.
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    • 3.Therefore, the four-chain argument smuggles in a loop-neutral background situation, begging the question against the coherence of loops within Mellor's own framework.
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    Reason against 2 of 2
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    • 1.Horwich and Dummett have argued that causal loops require only internal probabilistic coherence, not that each link raise the probability of its successor unconditionally.
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    • 2.Mellor's account can be read as requiring probability-raising relative to the actual causal situation, which for a loop is the loop itself taken as the reference class.
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    • 3.Under this reading, the four-chain distribution is an artifact of artificially mixing loop and non-loop populations, not a refutation of loop-internal causation.
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    Topics

    Modality & PossibilityCausation

    Related

    Horwich and Dummett have argued that causal loops require only internal probabil...If a does not raise the probability of b, then a cannot causally affect b under ...If no event in a causal loop can affect the next event, causal loops cannot obta...In the four-chain distribution of tokens (G-chains and H-chains), the number of ...
    +7 moreShow less
    Mellor defines a causal relation between singular events a and b as a situation ...Mellor's account can be read as requiring probability-raising relative to the ac...Mellor's probabilistic condition must be evaluated relative to a background situ...Therefore, the four-chain argument smuggles in a loop-neutral background situati...Under this reading, the four-chain distribution is an artifact of artificially m...When k encodes the loop's causal history, P(b|a) in k can exceed P(b|~a) in k, s...When the number of chains combining b with a equals those not combining b with a...

    Similar

    Backward causation is possible79%It is consistent to talk about causal loops according to Mellor's own ...77%Counterfactual analysis of causation is well suited to handle chancy (...77%The possibility of causal loops can be excluded a priori77%

    Source

    AI-extracted1/3 agreementValid
    SEP: causation-backwards
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    The first two sequences may be called G-chains and the other two H-chains. Moreover, Mellor assumes that all tokens of \(A, B\) and \(C\) are distributed among the four chains so that the number of chains is exactly the same, namely one fourth of the sequences. Mellor then defines a causal relation between two singular events \(a\) and \(b\) in terms of a situation \(k\) which makes \(b\) more likely to occur given \(a\) than without \(a\), i.e., \(\rP(b\mid a) \gt \rP(b\mid {\sim}a)\). But we c
    Extraction notes

    Validity: Extracted via Max plan + API grounding/validity checks

    Details

    Type
    claim
    Perspectives
    3 (1 for, 2 against)
    Edits
    1 edit