Skip to content
Carmelics
TopicsThinkersChangesContributorsLoading account…

    Carmelics

    A reasoning platform. Break down any belief into clear reasons, explore both sides, and weigh the evidence honestly.

    Navigate

    • Topics
    • Search
    • Recent Changes
    • Contribute
    • How It Works
    • Glossary
    • Thinkers
    • Contributors
    • About
    • Statistics
    • Terms
    • Privacy

    Database

    Statements
    —
    Perspectives
    —
    Topics
    —

    Press ? for keyboard shortcuts

    LoyalLoyalJusticeJustice
    Made withinDC&Austin
    Statements
    321,452
    Perspectives
    108,905
    Topics
    42
    Home/Original/inverse
    See Original
    Inverse View

    It is not the case that Confirmation of chaotic models is problematic even under the assumption of a perfect model

    ?Set your confidence on the premises below to see your aggregate.

    Reasons For

    2 perspectives
    Reason for 1 of 2
    ?
    • 1.Confirmation is holistic and probabilistic: Bayesian updating over trajectory bundles raises posterior probability of model classes, not point states.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 2.Van Fraassen's constructive empiricism holds that empirical adequacy across observable trajectories suffices for confirmation, making state-underdetermination epistemically irrelevant.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 3.The indistinguishability of states is itself a structural prediction of the chaotic model, and observing it constitutes confirmatory evidence for that model.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    Reason for 2 of 2
    ?
    • 1.Duhem-Quine holism shows that confirmation targets theoretical frameworks, not individual state attributions, so trajectory-bundle coherence confirms the model as a whole.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 2.Chaotic models generate statistical invariants—SRB measures and Lyapunov spectra—that are robustly measurable and distinguish correct models from incorrect ones empirically.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    Reasons Against

    1 perspective
    Reason against
    ?
    • 1.Assuming the model is perfect, there are too many states indistinguishable from the actual state of the system
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 2.These indistinguishable states yield empirically indistinguishable trajectories in the model state space
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 3.If multiple distinct states produce empirically indistinguishable trajectories, confirmation cannot uniquely identify the actual state
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    Next step

    Based on where you are in your exploration

    Strongest counterpoint
    Explore the most compelling reason on the other side.