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    Made withinDC&Austin
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    Home/Original/inverse
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    Inverse View

    It is not the case that Fiducial probability can give classical statistics an epistemic status

    ?Set your confidence on the premises below to see your aggregate.

    Reasons For

    2 perspectives
    Reason for 1 of 2
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    • 1.Fiducial distributions lack coherence: they can assign probabilities that violate the axioms of probability when applied to different parameterizations of the same model.
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    • 2.A probability assignment that fails coherence cannot legitimately ground epistemic credence in hypotheses, as Lindley demonstrated via fiducial contradictions in the 1950s.
      ?

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    Reason for 2 of 2
    ?
    • 1.Fisher's fiducial argument illicitly converts a frequency statement about estimators into a posterior-style statement about parameters without epistemic justification.
      ?

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    • 2.The logical gap between 'the procedure traps the true value 95% of the time' and '95% probability the parameter lies here' requires exactly the prior-free inference fiducial claims to achieve, making the derivation circular.
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    Reasons Against

    1 perspective
    Reason against
    ?
    • Fiducial probability derives a probability assignment over hypotheses without assuming a prior probability over statistical hypotheses at the outset
      ?

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