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    Given the mutually agreed upon fact that inductive infere... — Carmelics
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    Supports→Modal realism does not make inductive challenges any worse than they were before accepting modal realism

    Given the mutually agreed upon fact that inductive inference could fail, agreeing that it does fail for someone similar to the inferrer in a distant possible world incurs no additional epistemological cost

    Modality & PossibilitySkepticism
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    SkepticismModality & Possibility

    Key Terms

    Distant possible world(as used in thought experiments in epistemology)
    An imagined alternative version of reality that is very different from our actual world, with different laws of nature, people, or events.
    Epistemological cost(as used in epistemology)
    A penalty or problem that comes with accepting a belief in terms of how reliable or justified your knowledge becomes—the more 'cost,' the weaker your overall reasoning.
    epistemology

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    Related propositions within the same area of thought.
    (Contrasted with purely descriptive scientific inquiry)
    A normative enterprise that tells us how we ought to reason from evidence and how we ought to justify our beliefs, as distinct from merely describing how we do reason or justify beliefs
    inductive inference(Contrasted with the author's characterization of immediate moral judgment)
    A form of reasoning that includes inference to the best explanation and reasoning from empirical evidence
    possible world(Leibniz's account of modality; 'existence' of possible worlds is shorthand for compossibility, not literal existence)
    A set of compossible essences — a maximal collection of individual natures that can co-exist without contradiction

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    It is common ground that inductive inference is fallible and could failModal realism does not make inductive challenges any worse than they were before...Thinking of possibilities of failure as concrete individuals in other possible w...

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    It is common ground that inductive inference is fallible and could fai...85%Even though an inductive inference can fail in some possible situation...81%Thinking of possibilities of failure as concrete individuals in other ...81%Showing that inductive inference is a necessary condition of success p...80%

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    SEP: david-lewis
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    Peter Forrest (1982) argues that modal realism leads to inductive scepticism. According to modal realism, there are other thinkers very much like us who are deceived by their surroundings. Given this, we should doubt our inductive inferences. Lewis’s reply is that modal realism does not make inductive challenges any worse than they were before. It is common ground that inductive inference is fallible. That is, it is common ground that these inferences could fail. Thinking of the possibilities of

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