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    Hume's argument, reconstructed by Sobel and Earman, entai... — Carmelics
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    Challenges→A successful confirmatory probabilistic argument may shift the burden of proof onto those who deny the conclusion M

    Hume's argument, reconstructed by Sobel and Earman, entails that prior probability of testimonial reliability caps any posterior probability assigned to M.

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    1 reason for
    1 reason against

    Reasons For

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    Reason for
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    • 1.Testimony's evidential weight cannot exceed the prior probability that the testifier is reliable, since reliability is testimony's epistemic foundation.
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    • 2.Bayesian updating respects this constraint: P(M|testimony) ≤ P(reliability). Violating it would allow testimony to justify beliefs in impossible scenarios.
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    • 3.If we permitted posterior probability of M to exceed prior reliability probability, testimony could rationally convince us of inherently unreliable sources.
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    Reasons Against

    1 perspective
    Reason against
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    • 1.Sobel-Earman reconstruction conflates reliability of a source generally with reliability about specific claims, which may have independent evidential bases.
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    • 2.Corroborating evidence can raise P(M|testimony) above P(reliability) by independently confirming the testimony's content, not just the source's general reliability.
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    • 3.The claim assumes we must assess source reliability *prior* to evaluating testimony, but reliability judgments themselves often depend on testimonial consistency patterns.
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    Natural Theology1 linked

    Related

    A successful confirmatory probabilistic argument may shift the burden of proof o...Bayesian updating respects this constraint: P(M|testimony) ≤ P(reliability). Vio...Corroborating evidence can raise P(M|testimony) above P(reliability) by independ...If we permitted posterior probability of M to exceed prior reliability probabili...
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    Sobel-Earman reconstruction conflates reliability of a source generally with rel...Testimony's evidential weight cannot exceed the prior probability that the testi...The claim assumes we must assess source reliability *prior* to evaluating testim...

    Details

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    claim
    Perspectives
    2 (1 for, 1 against)
    Edits
    1 edit